Learning Uncertainty with Artificial Neural Networks for Improved Remaining Time Prediction of Business Processes

نویسندگان

چکیده

Artificial neural networks will always make a prediction, even when completely uncertain and regardless of the consequences. This obliviousness uncertainty is major obstacle towards their adoption in practice. Techniques exist, however, to estimate two types uncertainty: model observation noise data. Bayesian are theoretically well-founded models that can learn predictions. Minor modifications these loss functions allow learning for individual samples as well. paper first apply techniques predictive process monitoring. We found they contribute more accurate predictions work quickly. However, main benefit resides with estimates themselves separation higher-quality from lower-quality building confidence intervals. leads many interesting applications, enables an earlier prediction systems smaller datasets fosters better cooperation humans.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Lecture Notes in Computer Science

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1611-3349', '0302-9743']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85469-0_11